Four Downs - Better Dead than Red, Pt. 2

Posted by Higgy

Time for a confession. I grew up in Wisconsin. Fortunately, I was raised a Gopher as both of my parents attended the U of M back when Tony Dungy was taking the snaps and Kevin McHale was manning the post. However, I spent most of my life in Badger country and have a lot of friends that love Bucky. A few of them even went to the University of Wisconsin.

As I was enjoying college life in Minneapolis, one of my best friends was having a similarly great experience in Madtown. Reb and I grew up playing sports together, so it became natural to enjoy college football's oldest rivalry between our new schools in tandem. We've had several memorable Gopher-Badger weekends in both locales, and we even trade a foam replica of Paul Bunyan's Axe the way the teams trade the real one.

A rivalry that runs deeper than football.

Unfortunately for me, there hasn't been much trading lately. Actually, I haven't seen the axe in so long I can't be 100 percent sure it still exists. I hope Reb has held onto it and didn't discard it under the premise that he would probably never have to worry about giving it back.

His club still enters Saturday's game as a prohibitive favorites. I've seen lines between 14.5 and 16 points favoring the Badgers, and when I was asked a week ago what I thought it'd be, I guessed an optimistic 13.5 so I wasn't far off. However, Minnesota's stature is as high as its been for this matchup since the mid 2000s, and that makes an already-fun rivalry even more thrilling.

Minnesota has shown marked improvement over the past four games, and has a bye week off to prepare for the big showdown. Wisconsin has looked downright dominant since a loss to No. 3 Ohio State. Both are ranked in the Top 25 in the Coaches' Poll and the BCS. It's the first time the two have both been six games over .500 at the time of their clash in more than 100 years. (I believe since 1906.) Both aspire for New Year's Day bowls, and relatively new coaches on both campus have served up huge doses of optimism.

In short ... this is fun. And finally feels like it could actually be headed back towards a true rivalry again after quite a few years of Gopher mediocrity.

Unfortunately, Reb decided to spend this year's rivalry weekend seeing Pearl Jam in San Diego and golfing at Torrey Pines instead of attending the game. The nerve of some people. (Just kidding ... happy birthday, buddy!) But hopefully this is just the start of restoring college football's oldest rivalry to a more even and annually-anticipated affair for both sides.

So will Reb and his Badgers made it a decade straight with the Axe? Or will I be scheduling a special ceremony where he can present it to me in front of the entire Classy Gentlemen ... possibly in a limo, or in Vegas, or on the moon?

Wisconsin is favored for a reason. The Badgers are extremely powerful, and a Minnesota win would be a significant upset, and would trump our previous "signature" win over a red and white team at The Bank. So how exactly could the Gophers pull it off? Let's take a look at what would need to happen with Four Downs.

FIRST DOWN - KEEP PHIL CLEAN
A year ago when these teams squared off, Philip "Full" Nelson's redshirt was burned less than 24 hours before the game as he was announced the starter. He struggled a bit in his collegiate debut against a great Wisconsin team in Camp Randall, but he also showed some flashes that day to give the Gopher faithful optimism.

We'll only go as far as No. 9's arm will take us Saturday.

In six of the last eight quarters (all four against Indiana and the first two against Penn State) Nelson has been fantastic. He's made great decisions. His throws have been on the money. He hasn't taken a beating. In short, he's emerged as that quarterback we all hoped he'd be. And Saturday, his biggest start yet will be completely on his shoulders.

To me, the single biggest factor in whether or not Minnesota can compete comes down to the play of its quarterback. If Nelson throws for 300-plus and doesn't turn the ball over, Minnesota is in the game. If he struggles, throws a couple picks, gets sacked too many times, starts to look indecisive, it's going to be a long day.

It sounds like there's a significant chance Derrick Engel isn't playing, so that puts Minnesota down its top wideout before the ball is even kicked off, but fortunately enough weapons have emerged where that shouldn't hamper the passing game too much. Double XX will be a big weapon and his star will continue to rise above the beautiful Minneapolis skyline. Goodger can continue to be a nice complimentary target, and the two youngens Jones and Wolitarsky give us talent and speed on the outside.

But it all comes back to QB1. If Phil looks like he did in the first half of the Penn State game (before we took the foot off the gas pedal) we're in for a great game. If our line struggles to protect him against a great Badger front and Full Nelson gets inaccurate and indecisive, put in some earplugs and don't look anyone wearing red and white in the eye.

SECOND DOWN - BYE WEEK MAGIC
The last time Minnesota had a bye week, it was limping off two terrible performances and things looked dire. However, the team used the week off to regroup, and came out with a new fervor. The Gophs haven't lost since, and we've been treated to some great moments on both sides of the ball, as well as some ingenious game plans and some inspired play calls.

If Minnesota wants to play well Saturday, we'll need to see some more of those new wrinkles that emerged over the last four weeks. Wisconsin doesn't need any. They can line up and run right at you with that offensive line and Gordon and White and probably seven other guys capable of going for the century mark on the ground. It would be great to have that type of team. We don't.

Instead, we need to continue to shift and change formations to keep the defense guessing and thinking instead of purely reacting. One of our biggest coups against Nebraska was adding the jet sweeps, which we hadn't shown before. They were unprepared for it, didn't adjust, and those handoffs and play-fakes helped keep the Huskers guessing and opened up EVERYTHING.



It's on the internet, so you know it's true.
(Design by Flony, 2005)

It's time for a few more new wrinkles that Wisconsin hasn't seen before. Maybe an option pass from Donovahn Jones? Jones or KJ Maye in the wildcat for a few snaps? Actually handing it off to Mike Henry one of these times instead of just play-faking? More bubble screens? New route combinations for our talented tight ends? An onside kick at an opportune time or a fake punt that actually works?

I'm not a football coach. I don't know what the answer is. But I do know that we'll have a far better shot if we've got the element of surprise on our side a few times, and the subsequent analyzing and second-guessing that it would create.

THIRD DOWN - LIMIT BIG PLAYS
Wisconsin will get its rushing yards. After the way Iowa, Indiana and Penn State have ran on us (though Indiana isn't a relevant comparison) it's tough to envision either Gordon or White being held under 100 yards, despite whatever promises  Darrell Reid makes. However, the manner in which they get those yards will go a long ways towards determining the outcome.

The Badgers are great at breaking off big plays in the run game. Their massive offensive lines open big holes, and both those backs (especially Gordon ) have game-breaking speed once they're into the second level. Wisconsin's running attack actually looks a lot like the Barber-Maroney Gophers ... capable of rushing for 400 yards but getting killed in the time of possession category.

Our defense has to make it tough for those backs. That's much easier said than done, but holding them to 3-4 yards per crack with the occasional big play would be tolerable. Consistent runs of eight yards or longer and a fast tempo would not. That offense has the rare ability to blow a game open quickly by keeping it on the ground.

Limiting yards on first and second down and forcing the Badgers into passing situations is a key, but it will be more likely that our defense will have to find a way to stop some third- and even fourth-and-short situations. Our defensive line will have to try to hold their ground and occupy as much space as possible, and our linebackers and defensive backs all need to flow to the ball and tackle, tackle, tackle.

Before the Gentlemen got classy, the Battle for the Axe
inspired Paul Bunyan lumberjack breakfast tailgates.

Again, this all is much easier said than done, but Minnesota has some pieces that are capable of trading blows with the Badgers. Ra'Shede Hageman needs to play at his absolute best. Damien Wilson needs to be a busy, busy man on Saturday. Brock Vereen and Eric Murray need to contain and tackle when Wisconsin tries to get outside. The whole team needs to rally to the football. And the best defense would be long, sustained drives by the offense. Every one of our three-and-outs makes life difficult, and turnovers would kill.

FOURTH DOWN - RULE OF THREES
Not only do our beloved Gophs lead the all-time series by a narrow margin (58-56-8) but when you take a close look at the calendar, it's clear 2013 will be our year. Since the rivalry began in 1890, the Badgers have only defeated the Gophers ONCE in a year that ends in three. The Gophers hold a 9-1-2 edge in that category.

The Badgers only victory in a year ending in three came in 1983, when I was two. The two tied in 1923 (0-0) and 1953 (21-21), with the Gophers controlling the rest of the series. Minnesota won in 1893 (40-0), 1903 (17-0), 1913 (21-3), 1933 (6-3), 1943 (25-13), 1963 (14-0), 1973 (19-17), 1993 (28-21) and 2003 (37-34).

I started looking this random, wacky stat up because I knew off the top of my head we had beaten them in 2003 on the last-second Rhys Lloyd field goal, and that we had also beaten them in 1993 because it was the only blemish during Wisconsin's inaugural sea ... I mean the first Rose Bowl season under Barry Alvarez. So I decided to dig deeper into our record in years ending in three and found a really nice little pattern. This fact alone means this is our year. Right?

EXTRA POINTS
-I neglected to mention this last week, but the development of Eric Murray has been fantastic. He was our best defensive player against Penn State. His best play - the highlight-reel interception in the end zone directly in front of the Classy Gentlemen - was wiped out by a penalty, but he impacted the game all over the field. He stuck his nose in and tackled, he recovered the Lions' fumble on the first play of the game, and he was great in coverage all afternoon. I'd expect to see Murray on that Abracadabra guy Saturday, and if he can lock him up one-on-one ... or at least contain him with a little help ... it would be a huge boost.

-Our friend Roderick "Nugget" Williams sure hasn't played much, and that could change Saturday as we might need his physical style of running against Wisconsin's outstanding front seven, but he has still contributed in other phases. Do you ever watch him in between the third and fourth quarters doing the Gopher and thoroughly enjoying the rest of the usual medley. When Nugget says freeze, ya'll freeze one time. When Nugget says freeze, ya'll stop on a dime. FREEZE!

-When we were leaving The Bank following the Penn State win, I heard one of the greatest Gopher-related quotes ever. Students were chanting "We hate Iowa" (because we do) in the concourse, and an elderly couple in their 70s or so were standing near me. The woman turned to her husband and loudly said: "We need a chant for hating Wisconsin too!" Well said, coolest grandma ever.

-The Section 117 Classy Gentlemen have been faced with some interesting questions this week with the forecast calling for a high temperature of REALLY COLD!!! on Saturday. How can we stay warm while still donning our Classy attire for such a big rivalry game? For some of us, we've got it figured out. For those of us who don't have any wiggle room under extremely tight dress pants (cough, cough, Big Party, cough) it could be a little more challenging. Tune in next week for photos, provided cameras work on the North Pole.

However, we're still gonna hit Lot 37 the moment it opens with the fervor this rivalry deserves. Big Pary's cousin Adlick is coming to town and making up for his Badger-fan status by bringing a deep fryer and taking care of the main element to our Thanksgiving-themed tailgate: a deep fried turkey. I spent tonight getting some sides ready, and everyone's chipping in with something. Considering the weather, a liquid blanket will also most certainly be on the menu. And if you saw the post about the Meat Pig during the last big rivalry week, Flony is working his magic again with a meat axe. Rivalries are delicious.

Happy Birthday, Flone!

-Speaking of Flony, yesterday was his birthday. To celebrate, I made him this little card featuring our favorite coach not named Jerry Kill. Even when he's wishing you a happy birthday, Bud Kilmer is a condescending old bastard that only cares about his next district title.

-Caught some of Richard Pitino's club tonight. Thanks to the powers that be for finally televising the FIFTH GAME OF THE SEASON. I thought Eliason looked nimble and active, and pretty solid catching and scoring in the paint. Wally Ellenson loves to shoot. Oto Oseniks might actually contribute in positive ways instead of negative, and I continue to like pretty much everything about the Hollins boys. Can't wait to see the Syracuse game in Maui to find out what this team has really got, and shortly thereafter to see Mo Walker's skeleton finally get some run. Pitino appears to be awake on the sidelines the whole time, which I couldn't say 100 percent about his predecessor. Sometimes wise old owls need naps, or need to take out Andre Hollins immediately after he hits three 3-pointers in a row, or not draw up in-bounds plays ever.

-Representatives from the Outback Bowl are going to be in town Saturday scouting the Gophers (and Badgers)? In case they're wondering what we'd think about attending their fine bowl game and visiting their city, they should ask our friend Stevie Janowski. (NSFW audio alert)